If history is any help, the chart on the right, based on MLS statistics, shows the last fifteen months of condo sales in Mill Valley (click on the chart for a full sized view)…

The tall dark blue lines represent the condos for sale in each of the given months. The short light blue lines are the sales …. The caveat is that statistics, according to my wonderful ex-boss Astrid Trauth, are like a bikini … what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is critical. With this in mind view this chart with the thought that the four sales in December ’09 were condos on the market in October and November.

In any event, about one out of every eight to ten condos brought on the market in the past fifteen months in Mill Valley sold. Not such hot numbers, eh? A failure rate of 90%. Wouldn’t one in four be better? So observe the chart … Sales are relatively even EXCEPT during the winter dip when the supply declines. Supply and demand …

And the questions are … when do you bring a condo on for the best opportunity of selling? … winter. How do you price a condo in this market? Example .. there are two condos of three bedrooms on the market right now … both having been reduced recently …. 7 Wordsworth Ct, a short sale with Prudential (I called and did not get a call back … hmmmm) … reduced to $618,880 … and 9 Thoreau Circle, listed with Carol Dean of Frank Howard Allen, tenant occupied, reduced and now offered at $569,000 … One similar condo sold … 6 Tennyson, listed and sold in 32 days, no reduction, at $619,000.

Homeowners dues: around $400. Assessments to be kept in mind, disclosed, discussed.

When to come on the market? When you’re totally ready. But if winter were possible, I’d push it because unemployment shows no sign of slackening, the economy is not full of vim and vigor …. And, if you’re selling to buy, price it right, sell it and do well in your purchase.

Oh, by the way … two more charts … market share statistics, straight from MLS … kudos to us at Frank Howard Allen!

 

I love seeing that Frank Howard Allen is alone at the top in dollar volume and in number of sales … with ¼ of the market (plus or minus) … and not just slightly ahead. Kudos.

Posted by:  Tom Verkozen