Old news: The Wall Street Journal did a bit about an International Monetary Fund warning that prospects for recovery in the global real estate sector are “dismal,” and that the downturn could last eight years. Dang, I said, eight years – three years ago. Only five years to go!

There is some basis for their analysis. The IMF anticipates problems both in the “bust” countries, such as the U.S., Spain, and Ireland, and the “rebound” economies, such as the Asia-Pacific region, most Scandinavian countries, and Canada – and they said that residential investment remains severely depressed compared with past cycles … and on and on. Whew!

Bright side: So what are we to say here in Marin? First, look at the following graphs from Steve Dickason. Notice that recently we’ve experienced a slight trend up in the number of homes ‘awaiting a moving van’, (most agents call them pending sales) and, as you might also notice, we’re relatively well set as compared to a year ago before there were ‘bust’ countries and ‘rebound’ economies (how long has Japan’s recession dragged on and on and on?).

I’ve included this next graph because it tells a relatively simple story.  What is being sold are the lesser-priced homes, thus the gap between average list price and average sales price.

Which brings to mind a few properties:  Very saleable is 84 Pine Drive, Fairfax, a spacious three bedroom view home listed by Candy Grippi that has been just reduced by $50,000 to $749,900. The owners, who paid $730,000 for this beauty in ’08, have over $800,000 in the property, which sits on a 1/2 totally private acre. Might this just be the best buy in Fairfax today?

Or might the best buy be 70 Manor, listed by Sue Ecke for $769,000? Get the idea? Want to see ‘em? Call me. We can go when I get back from Yosemite. (I love that Granite Valley and thank John Muir every time I go). And, unless I stay, I will return because I’m busy with a couple of closings and a couple of new listings.  One is smack in the downtown of San Anselmo, just Feng Shui’d by Finola FitzClarence, who called it a difficult house, made a slug of transformative suggestions. The seller agreed, and the deep facelift begins! This large Barber track four bedroom home is being staged by Morrell Interiors who said, as she smiled through her view finder, “These should be fantastic before and afters.” More on this great property as it develops.

And then, as we’re talking REDUCTIONS, there have been WAY more than twice as many reductions (184) as closed sales (72) in Marin thus far this month.  So we switch to southern Marin, where, in the past few days Max Applegarth has provided us with two SERIOUS reductions totaling just shy of $1M. 152 Hacienda, Tiburon, a stunning five bedroom home with a kitchen to die for and views to drool over was price slashed by $600,000 to $3,885,000. Motivated owners? One would think so. Then along came 33 Birch in Mill Valley, another beautiful five bedroom home, Jared Polsky designed, reduced $300,000 from $2,995,000.

Posted by:  Tom Verkozen