Let’s let some statistics develop a picture of the Marin market for us and then ponder what they mean, just for a moment. Laugh, then email me with your thoughts: verkozen@comcast.net.

Just this week (5/12) the number of $1M+ sales passed 100 (In 2007 there were 377 sales by 5/12). That’s a pretty slow rate compared to prior years. (In 2007 the average sale, including condos, was $1,203,000, before that it was higher yet.) To date the sales in the county have mostly been the lower end of the market, condos in Novato making up a bulk of the sales.

How do we view how well the prices are holding up? One comparison is on the price per square foot basis. Stinson Beach is two to three times as high as elsewhere in the county – but they aren’t building any more beach. In Novato the price per square foot is definitely lower.

In 2007 the average price per square foot for homes above the $1M mark was $691. In this year’s sales the price per square foot plummeted by 8%, to $634. (Plummet is used facetiously, but look at the sample bias – only homes that have sold for more than $1M.

More interesting is that the average price per square foot for all SFDs and condos in Marin at this date, two years ago, was $573. Today it stands at $409. Again, it is the condos being sold in distress sales that have altered the numbers and dropped the price per square foot by 31%.

Statistics are not information until they are explored. Hence there are two glitches, as pointed out by the numbers used above:

First is the bias caused by the condos. These sales, representing a larger percentage of sales than in prior years, have brought down the average sales price and the average price per square foot.

The second bias is the low number of sales in the $1M+ range. 100 sales yields a rate of sales in the 20 – 25 per month range (although that rascal Victor Maas predicted 50 such sales this month and I hope he’s right). With over 800 such properties on the market the supply is, at the hopefully rate of 50 per month, 16 months of inventory. That is quite high.

In general, what do we make of statistics? Mostly, I find that while statistics can be useful, frequently they’re simply a way of viewing the situation to make ourselves feel better.

In real estate the highest and best use of statistics is for the seller. Knowledgeable sellers carefully review the market and based on ‘informing statistics’, ie, what is and isn’t working for other sellers, price their property for a successful sale.

Posted by:Tom Verkozen